Dutch manure offers a valuable opportunity to enhance soil fertility in regions struggling with nutrient depletion. As a rich organic fertilizer, it can support plant production and improve low-quality soils in countries such as France, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states. Expanding its use abroad could provide a sustainable solution, benefiting both Dutch farmers and agricultural regions in need of essential nutrients, as explained by Romke Postma and Harm Gelderblom of the Nutriënten Management Instituut (NMI).
In the Netherlands, the volume of animal manure that cannot be applied on farmland is expected to rise in the coming years, largely due the phase-out of derogation by 2026. This will have significant implications for the manure market, making it increasingly difficult for livestock farmers to manage surplus manure and driving up disposal costs.
To deal with the situation on the Dutch manure market, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Food Security and Nature (LVVN) has introduced a manure market approach to address the broader challenges of manure surplus. This strategy focuses on a combination of both short- and long-term measures. One of these measures is to facilitate manure exports and promote sustainable agricultural practices abroad.
Exploring market potential for animal manure as a nutrient source
Harm Gelderblom and Romke Postma of the NMI (a Dutch knowledge & consulting firm) examined manure export opportunities in a study titled 'Verkenning mogelijkheden verhoging mestexport; een bureaustudie' (in English 'Exploration of possibilities of increase of manure export; a desk study'). The countries involved in this study are Belgium, Germany, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary, Sweden and the Baltic States.
The study outlines five key steps for determining the best destinations for manure exports.
- Calculating current nitrogen and phosphate use
The nitrogen and phosphate use in the target regions was determined based on the agricultural crops area per region. National data on average nitrogen and phosphate application from animal manure and mineral fertilizers per hectare were also considered.
In Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZ), the EU Nitrates Directive sets a limit of 170 kilograms of nitrogen (N) per hectare from animal manure. An upper limit of 50 kilograms of phosphorus pentoxide (P₂O₅) per hectare was used for phosphate inputs from animal manure. This roughly corresponds to equilibrium fertilization, where phosphate removal with crops is offset by phosphate inputs with fertilization.
In nearly all analyzed countries, the combined nitrogen and phosphate usage from animal manure and mineral fertilizers was below these thresholds. Consequently, actual nitrogen and phosphate application levels were used for regional analysis. Belgium was the exception, where usage exceeded the mentioned upper limits. - Determining current animal manure production
Manure production for each region was calculated using 2.023 livestock numbers per region and the corresponding excretion rates. The analysis focused on cattle and pigs, as poultry data were only available at the national level. Since poultry contributes a minimal share (0-5%) to total manure output, these figures were omitted.
Using this approach, total animal manure production was converted into nitrogen and phosphate values based on nutrient content. The results revealed several regions with notably high manure production (see figures below), particularly in western and southern Germany (Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Bavaria) and western France (Brittany).
- Identifying animal manure imports from the Netherlands
The export of manure from the Netherlands to various European regions was analyzed using data provided by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO). This dataset contained all manure exports recorded in 2023, including quantities, manure types, and their nitrogen and phosphate contents. The data were processed to calculate the total amount of nitrogen and phosphate supplied to each target region.The analysis revealed that significant manure shipments are directed to northern France, western and central Germany, and western Poland. Notably, manure shipments to central France contain a higher concentration of nitrogen and phosphate per cargo compared to those destined for Belgium, Germany, and Poland. Overall, the largest volumes of manure imports from the Netherlands are received in northeastern France (Grand Est) and western Germany (North Rhine-Westphalia). - Deriving space for additional animal manure use
The potential for increased use of nitrogen and phosphate from animal manure was calculated per region. The analysis revealed that some regions in Belgium, western France, and western Germany have no or little capacity for additional phosphate application (see map). Conversely, large areas in France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and the Baltic States (Latvia and Lithuania) have significant unused capacity for manure application (see figures below). - Estimating potential for increased manure sales
The potential for increased export of (products from) animal manure to a region is largely determined by the scope for increased use of nitrogen and phosphate from animal manure. In addition, several other aspects play a crucial role, such as:
- Soil fertility: it determines yield potential and the need for additional nutrients and organic matter.
- Structure of the agricultural sector: this includes the type of farms (specialized or mixed) and farm size.
- Infrastructure: available storage, transport, and application facilities for manure in the respective countries.
- Acceptance rate of animal fertilizers: this may vary due to multiple reasons.
- Economic aspects: the costs of production, storage, transport, and application should not be much higher and preferably lower than those of mineral fertilizers. This varies by region, depending on the market situation.
- Legal aspects: regulations related to the trade, transport, and use of fertilizers.
Prospects for manure export
The study shows that regions with high soil fertility typically have less need for additional organic inputs, while areas with lower soil fertility can benefit significantly from manure application. The size and type of farms in each region also influence the potential for manure exports. Generally, areas with a higher proportion of larger farms present greater opportunities.
The analysis identifies northern, central, and eastern France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and the Baltic States as key areas for potential growth in manure exports. The sandy soils of northeastern Germany and the Baltic States, for instance, could benefit from manure applications to improve soil fertility by adding organic matter. Meanwhile, western Poland's agricultural enterprises provide a favorable environment for efficient manure management and use, making it an attractive market for Dutch manure exports.
‘Northern, central, and eastern France, eastern Germany, western Poland, and the Baltic states are key areas for potential growth in manure exports’
